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Sunday, January 21, 2007

The 200(Mega)Tonne Challenge

Is Rick Mercer available for this one? I can imagine the commercial:

In 2003 I challenged you all to take the One Tonne Challenge. We hoped that all good Canadians would respond and we'd reduce green house gases by 30 Megatonnes. What I didn't tell you was that we'd still need to reduce our emissions by another 170 Megatonnes in order to meet our Kyoto commitments. I'm happy to tell you that now that you have done your duty it's time for corporate Canada to step up and do their bit. That's why I'm calling on them to reduce their emissions by 25%. Come on Canada, you can do it!

Ok, maybe that's not how he'd put it, especially considering the dismal failure the Liberal's 1 Tonne Challenge was. According to Greg Weston, we need to reduce GHG production by 200 Megatonnes in order to meet Kyoto, and that means by 2012. He kindly lists the largest producers of GHGs right down to the 8 Megatonnes produced by domestic aircraft. Doing the math, it would seem obvious that we have to reduce emissions by an average of 25% (at least) to do it. We need to reduce 25% in the next five years to meet the Kyoto targets, something I think we can reasonably assume cannot be done through new, as yet un-invented technologies. The simple fact is that we would have to conserve and reduce through cutting production in industry and reducing the use of CO2 producing items like cars and home heating. Aside from the uncomfortable home life we'd have to endure (I wonder if parliament would redefine "Room Termperature" for us?) such cuts must mean job losses and a retraction of the economy. Most people would call that a recession. The two most recent recessions (US stats) indicate that even a small reduction in economic output over less than year can devastate the economy and bring real pain to the average citizen. Imagine a recession of 25%! Even counting on efficiencies, some new technologies, and fantasies like Wind Power, the necessary reduction in the economy would be almost unthinkable to the average Canadian. I think a more honest commercial would go something like this:

Hey Canada! We signed on to the Kyoto accord and you've made it pretty clear you expect us to comply with our International obligations. Well, were going to! You may be asking "How?" Well, next time you're at work have a look around, count every five people you see and imagine one of them out of work. The resulting reduction in economic output will put us most of the way there. To make up the rest of it, we are banning the use of all personal vehicles 2 days a week, one of which must be a work day. And finally, we will be installing a new thermostat in your house that only goes up to lucky 13C (55 degrees for you old fogies). We know this will cause great pain to all of us Canadians (well, not all of us, there'll still be 308 seats in Parliament) and our sacrifices won't actually reduce the risks of climate change in any real way, but our symbolic gesture will be a beacon of light (energy-saving fluorescent, of course) to the rest of the world. We are certain that China and India, seeing us shivering in the cold, will immediately take steps to reduce their GHG emissions. Thank you, Canada! You're the best!

Does anyone have the guts to actually tell the truth?